Buy Treasuries, Invest in the Brazilian Stock Market and Don’t Be a Hero

Time flies and we’ve been running Stock Pickers, the premier financial market podcast in Brazil, for almost two years now. With every episode we do, I worry less about what the guests say about their positions and investments, I focus on the nuances, the mentality.

In the last one, we had an interesting experiment. I spent more than three years of my life in the XP research group, in the strategy cell, with the guests we hosted: Fernando Ferreira, chief strategist and head of research, and Jenny Lee, area vice president and equity strategist.

A few “busy” nights updating the models with Jenny, how much advice did I get from Ferreira. Still, it’s interesting to “be on the other side of the table” and have a colder analysis of how they think.

Since last year, I feel that the market is increasingly concerned with the short term. Increasingly rare indications of a longer horizon.

Ferreira and Janney form a “less common” duo on our bench: both with “on the sell side”, analysts by definition who have opinions, not quotas. Unlike the stock crews that are usually brought to us in episodes.

Many rely on this factor to criticize the profession, I saw it from the other side. Like CEOs, they are also paid to change minds, but their vision of financial assets and opportunities seemed to escape the noise and exaggeration that normally permeates the market.

It was with such “calmness” that we talked about several points that interested us. We broke the conversation down into broad topics, and the resulting summary was: buy shorter-maturity U.S. government bonds, stay away from the U.S. stock market, take advantage of good stocks at a discount in Brazil — and that includes real estate funds and Brazilian government bonds.

And do you know China, which scared you so much? High-quality companies, some in technology segments, unlike the situation with US companies, are deeply discounted and may retain opportunities.

The conversation lasted a little over an hour and a half, the result is worth watching.

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