Focus Bulletin: 2023 inflation and GDP forecasts down again

Analysts’ inflation forecast for 2023 was cut again this week, as was the IPCA’s estimate for 2024, according to data published this Monday (23) in the Central Bank’s Central Report. The forecast for GDP growth this year has also fallen, according to the survey.


The IPCA estimate for this year fell from 4.75% to 4.65% this week, the second week of declines in a row and following Petrobras’ announcement of lower gasoline prices. The forecast for inflation in 2024 has also decreased slightly — from 3.88% to 3.87%. The inflation forecast for 2025 has been at 3.50% for 13 weeks, the same estimate for 2026, which remains at 3.50% in the last 16 Focus bulletins.

The IPCA adjusted price forecast fell from 10.10% to 9.68%, and the estimate for 2024 fell from 4.31% to 4.20. Analysts’ forecast for 2025 at these prices increased from 3.94% to 3.97%, while the forecast for 2026 was held at 3.50% for 13 weeks.

For IGP-M, the forecast decreased from 3.69% to 3.56% in 2023, but increased from 3.96% to 4.0% in 2024 and from 3.97% to 4.0% in 2025. The estimate for 2026 has been kept at 4.0% for 35 years. weeks.


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The median forecast for GDP growth in 2023 fell from 2.92% to 2.90% after three weeks of stability, while the forecast for 2024 remained at 1.50% in the last five surveys. The 2025 forecast has also remained at 1.90% for four weeks, while the 2026 forecast has remained flat at 2.0% for 11 straight polls.


Base interest rate (Selic) forecasts for this year and the next two years remain unchanged for 11 weeks. The estimate for the end of 2023 remained at 11.75%, while the forecast for 2024 remained at 9.0% and the forecast for 2025 remained at 8.50%. Which in 2026, in turn, was at the same 8.50% for 12 consecutive weeks.


The estimate of the dollar in 2023 this week remained stable at 5.00 reais. The forecast for 2024 also remained at 5.05 reais, and for 2025 – at the same level of 5.10 reais. The forecast for 2026, in turn, dropped from 5.20 reais to 5.19 reais.

Primary outcome

The forecast for the primary result in 2023 remained at -1.10% of GDP for three weeks, while the estimate for next year improved, falling from 0.83% of GDP to 0.75% of GDP. The deficit forecast for 2025 also fell from 0.60% of GDP to 0.55% of GDP, and for 2026 from -0.50% of GDP to -0.40% of GDP.


Public debt

Projections for public sector net debt will improve this year and next. The estimate for 2023 fell from 61.0% of GDP to 60.60% of GDP, while for 2024 it fell from 64.05% of GDP to 63.90%. For 2025 and 2026, they remained at the level of 65.85% of GDP and 67.40% of GDP, respectively.

Trade balance

The forecast for Brazil’s trade balance in 2023 has increased from a surplus of US$73.70 billion to a surplus of US$74.35 billion. The estimate for 2024 fell from US$60.35 billion to US$61.80 billion and for 2025 from US$60.0 billion to US$58.30 billion. The balance estimate for 2026 remained at US$59.50 billion

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