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O Ibovespa (IBOV) broke the downtrend of the last five trading sessions and closed up 0.87% this Tuesday (24) to 113,761.90 points. But it is still too early to say what awaits us queue no negative cycle. If you really want to consolidate a rising trendIbovespa should be maintained at an even higher level.
At least that’s what graphic analysts to do Itau BBA, Genius investment d Nectan, whose methodology seeks to detect very short-term trends. In the middle of three houses, the first resistance is in the area of 116,067 points.
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already technical analysis, resistance is a point on the chart that, when broken, opens up space to find even higher highs. When this is done, it causes the index to move sideways or, at worst, reverse direction and resume a downtrend.
Since the Ibovespa closed yesterday at 112,785 points (23), it is the same as saying that the end of the cycle that fell in recent days will only be confirmed if Brazilian standard is up more than 3.39% – and will stay there for a while.
See Itaú BBA, Genial and Necton forecasts for Ibovespa in the short term:
| Cash register | Closing* | 1st resistance | % alto** |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genius | 112,785 | 117,100 | 3.83 |
| Itau BBA | 112,785 | 114,100 | 1.17 |
| Nectan | 112,785 | 117,000 | 3.74 |
| Average | 112,785 | 116,067 | 2.91 |
| *23/out | |||
| **around October 23rd |
The problem becomes even greater when you remember that, as with every average, this resistance of 116,607 points only exists because Itaú BBA is lowering it by establishing its first resistance at 114,100 points. Genial and Necton are more conservative, and the resistance of the project is much higher – about 117 thousand points.
For Itaú BBA, the resistance of about 117 thousand points is the third in line. To achieve this, Ibovespa still had to clear the intermediate ceiling of 115,400 points.
Ibovespa: Banco Safra is optimistic about 2024
O Harvest predicts Ibovespa at 142 thousand points by the end of 2024, which represents a potential increase of the index by about 26%. According to bank analysts, Ibovespa may rise with support the process of disinflationwhich should lower the Selic rate and consequently increase lending and increase consumption.
The forecast calls for inflation at 3.3% and Selic at 8.75% at the end of the period, while GDP should grow by 2.5%. Analysts do not rule out that the search for a fiscal balance in Brazil could mean an increase in corporate taxes, although these measures are not a guarantee that the government will achieve its goal.
“The outlook for global markets remains challenging and fiscal discipline is essential to ensure a favorable outlook,” the report said.
