Ibovespa falls 0.33% and loses 113 thousand points under pressure from Petrobras (PETR4); the dollar fell to 5.01 reais

Ibovespa closed down 0.33% this Wednesday (18), at 112,784.52 points. The index for the entire session was in the region of 113,000 points, but could not hold the mark. It hit an intraday high of 113,679.63 in a session marked by a more than 6% drop in Petrobras ( PETR4 ).

“Easing tensions in the Middle East, without conflict over land, is generating movement towards falling oil, falling US interest rates and weakening the dollar against other currencies,” Leandro Petrakos, director of research and partner at Quantzed, said on the outlook script.

Although the risk of conflict over land has not materialized today, the deployment of representatives in the US still raises concerns about the uncertainty caused by war.

“Despite the reduction in US interest rates, amid theories that interest rates have already peaked in the short term, it was not enough to keep global risk assets positive, which felt the US authorities’ statements about escalating risks. conflict. in the Middle East,” explains Nicolas Barsoy, chief economist at Nova Futura Investimentos.

On Wall Street, the main indexes closed mixed. Treasury yields peaked early in the session but retreated later in the day to end the day lower. This week, investors are still looking at the corporate balance sheets of major technology companies and important economic data.

“Overseas, interest rates on Treasuries (U.S. Treasury bonds) had another day of high volatility — amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher at home for longer and that the U.S. government will increase bond sales to cover the deficit. Earlier in the day, the 10-year Treasury rate rose to 5% for the first time since 2007,” explained Julia Aquino, equity analyst at Rico, and the subsequent move sent rates lower.

In the Treasury bond market, the 10-year note fell 7.4 basis points (bp) to 4.85%, while the 2-year yield fell 1.7 bp. 6 bp, 4.802%.

The dollar ended the day down 0.29%, trading at R$5.016 for buying and R$5.017 for selling. The US dollar also fell against major global currencies, with the DXY down 0.51%.

In the commodity market this Monday, the 23rd, oil fell by more than 2%, given signs that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may not happen at this time, reducing fears of a bottleneck in the production of the commodity. .

December WTI crude fell 2.94% ($2.59) to $85.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), while Brent traded on the Intercontinental Exchange for the same month (ICE) by 2.53% (US). 2.33 US dollars), 89.83 US dollars per barrel.

Here, interest rates fell on all contracts. “However, in the short term, investors felt the hawkish tone of Compasso Net, which highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the fall in inflation in the coming months, which led to the stability of short rates in the future DI curve,” Barsoy emphasizes.

The January 2024 DI rate was flat at 12.13%, while the January 2025 DI rate was at 11.05%, compared to 11.08% in the previous revision, and the January DI rate 2026 was at 10.98% compared to 11.05% from the previous adjustment. preliminary adjustment.

Among the longer contracts, the rate for January 2027 was 11.16% from 11.23%, and the rate for January 2028 was 11.41% from 11.51%.

The highlight of the day was undoubtedly Petrobras’ sudden drop, which led to a fall with a loss of 6.61% on preferred shares (PETR4) to R$35.35 and 6.03% on common shares (PETR3) at R38.35 US dollars. “In my opinion, the stock was affected by the company’s announcement of changes in the appointment of managers and the creation of a capital payment reserve, which was not appreciated by investors. As a result, it seems to me that there is some caution in the market as to whether there will be political interference in the management of the company,” emphasizes Leandra Petrakos, director of research and partner at the analytics and technology company Quantzed. and an investor education campaign.

Among the day’s top gainers were Méliuz ((active=CASH3)), up 9.33% to 7.03 reais, and CVC (CVCB3), up 9.20% to 2.73 reais.

(com Reuters)

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