Tesouro Direto: Rates rise with Treasuries Volatility and IPCA Treasuries Real Interest Rate above 6%

Treasury Direct Inflation yields rose this Monday morning (23) as US Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2007.

US Treasury Bond Rate (Treasury) The 30 year rose to 5.13% per year this morning. As of 10:40 a.m., the 10-year note was paying 4.97% a year, but had reached a yield above 5% for the first time since 2007.

However, shares fell minutes later after mega-investor Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, said the company had closed a short position in bonds from the USA.

At the same time, investors are still pricing in the speech of the president of the Federal Reserve System (US Central Bank, Fed) last week. He said inflation remains very high and slower economic growth is likely to be needed to control rising prices.

Here, the Focus bulletin published by the Central Bank showed that this year’s IPCA estimate fell from 4.75% to 4.65% over the week. It was the second consecutive week of declines and follows Petrobras’ announcement of lower gasoline prices. The forecast for inflation in 2024 decreased slightly — from 3.88% to 3.87%. The inflation forecast for 2025 has been at 3.50% for 13 weeks, the same estimate for 2026, which remains at 3.50% in the last 16 Focus bulletins.

The GDP (gross domestic product) forecast for 2023 fell from 2.92% to 2.90% after three weeks of stability. Forecasts for 2024 (1.50%), 2025 (1.90%) and 2026 (2%) remain stable.

At Tesouro Direto, inflation bonds due in 2055 were paying 6.06% a year in the day’s first update, at 9:24 a.m., compared with a rate of 6.05% on Friday (20). The Treasury IPCA+ 2035 real yield rose from 5.89% to 5.91% and the Treasury IPCA+ 2029 yield rose from 5.84% to 5.85%.

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In prefixed rates, rate changes were mixed. Fixed Treasury 2026 yield fell from 11.24% to 11.12%. Interest on the 2029 bond fell from 11.81% to 11.76%. The Treasury Prefix Rate in 2033 rose from 11.96% to 11.98%.

Check the prices and rates of the government bonds available for purchase at Tesouro Direto on Monday morning (23):

The House is expected to vote on the exclusive funds tax this week

With a forecast to attract R $ 20 billion in 2024 and up to R $ 54 billion by 2026, the taxation of the investments of the wealthiest part of the population must be voted on this Tuesday (24) in the Chamber of Deputies. From the 14th, the bill is on the agenda of the House, which is being considered urgently.

The speaker of the proposal, deputy Pedro Paulo (PSD-RJ), is trying to reach an agreement with a group of rural residents to increase the number of shareholders needed to maintain the exemption from dividends from Fiagros, investment funds in agro-industrial chains. The parliamentarian also seeks to determine how the installments of income tax on exceptional funds and the possible equalization of the rates of these funds will take place and offshore (investment in companies abroad).

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(From Agência Brasil)

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