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The index suggests that job growth is likely to continue through the end of 2023
NEW YORK, October 9, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) rose to 114.66 in September from an upwardly revised 114.16 in August. The ETI is the leading composite employment index. If the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that changes in the trend toward job gains or losses are imminent in the coming months.
“The ETI edged up slightly in September, signaling continued job gains,” he said Selchuk Erensenior economist of The Conference Board. “The index has been slowly declining since its peak March 2022, but remains well above pre-pandemic levels. That suggests the U.S. economy will continue to add jobs through the end of 2023 and into next year, even if growth slows. We expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in November and keep rates high for longer as job gains remain steady and wage growth remains strong.
Eren added: “Several components of the ETI confirm that US labor markets remain tight. Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain very low, as does the share of workers working part-time because they cannot find full-time positions. Likewise, the percentage of firms reporting difficulty filling vacancies increased in September.
“Meanwhile, the number of temporary help workers — an important early indicator of hiring in other industries — continues to fall after peaking in March 2022 and the share of consumers who said jobs are ‘hard to find’ in The Conference Board Consumer Survey The Confidence Survey® has increased. Looking ahead, we expect the Fed’s rate hikes to gradually slow job growth, with job losses likely to begin in the second quarter of 2024. Our latest US forecast shows the unemployment rate rising to 4 in the second half of 2024 .2 percent, corresponding to a loss of about 700,000 jobs. However, we expect the recession to be short-lived and jobs to recover quickly by the end of next year.”
The increase in the Employment Trends Index in September was driven by positive contributions from four of its eight components: initial claims for unemployment insurance, the ratio of involuntary part-time workers to all part-time workers, the percentage of firms with unfilled vacancies, and industrial production.
The Employment Trends Index combines eight leading employment indicators, each proven to be accurate in its own field. Combining individual indicators into a composite index filters out the “noise” to show the underlying trends more clearly.
The eight leading employment indicators combined into the Employment Trends Index include:
- The percentage of respondents who say they are “having a hard time finding a job” (The Conference Board A survey of consumer confidence®)
- Initial Requirements for Unemployment Insurance (US Department of Labor)
- Percentage of firms currently unfilled (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Workers Employed by the Temporary Help Industry (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of the number of involuntary part-time workers to all those working part-time (BLS)
- Jobs (BLS)*
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
- Real Production and Trade Sales (US Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical assessment for the last month
**Statistical assessment for the last two months
The Conference Board publishes a monthly Index of Employment Trends at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday following the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report each Friday. Technical notes for this series are available on the Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
About the Conference Board
The Conference Board is a member-driven think tank that provides trusted insights into What’s Next™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, non-profit organization with tax-exempt 501(c)(3) status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org.
2023 Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ release schedule
| |
Index release date (10 a.m. ET) | Data for the month |
Monday, January 9, 2023 | December 2022 |
Monday, February 6 | January 2023 |
March 13, Monday | February |
Monday, April 10 | march |
May 8, Monday | April |
Monday, June 5 | May |
Monday, July 10 | June |
August 7, Monday | July |
Tuesday, September 5* | August |
Monday, October 9 | September |
Monday, November 6 | October |
Monday, December 11 | November |
* Released on Tuesday due to holiday | |
© The Conference Board 2023 year. All data contained in this table is protected by US and international copyright laws. The data displayed is for informational purposes only and may be viewed, viewed and/or used only in accordance with and with the permission of the Conference Board in accordance with the subscription or license agreement and Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org . The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, distributed, published, or posted in any manner without the written permission of the Conference Board. |
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